In this page we'll glimpse two related practices tend to be widely by simply traders called Backtesting and Data Mining. These are techniques that are powerful and valuable if we use them correctly, however traders often misuse her. Therefore, we'll also explore two common pitfalls of these kinds of techniques, called multiple hypothesis problem and overfitting and the ways to overcome these pitfalls.
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The is actually that there is nothing at all unusual or significant with the fact that some average turned out to be the most popular. After all, we tested almost fifty gurus against identical shoes data, so we'd look forward to finding a few good performers, just by accident. It doesn't mean there's anything special about the particular moving average that "won" in scenario. The problem arises because we tested multiple hypotheses until discovered one that worked, as opposed to choosing an hypothesis and testing which.
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